Macro pressure and inventory buildup resonate, tin prices fall under pressure and lose the 270,000 mark [SMM tin futures brief comment]

[Tin Market Daily Review on July 28, 2025]

On July 28, 2025, the SHFE tin contract (SN2509) experienced a unilateral decline during the day. It opened at 271,350 yuan/mt in the morning session, fluctuated downward, accelerated its bottom-hitting trend in the afternoon, and touched a low of 266,800 yuan/mt before closing at 267,880 yuan/mt. This represented a drop of 3,430 yuan (down 1.26%) from the previous settlement price, with trading volume reaching 99,762 lots and open interest decreasing by 1,508 lots to 31,508 lots, indicating significantly heightened risk-averse sentiment. Meanwhile, the three-month LME tin contract closed at $33,910/mt, down $230 (0.67%), showing enhanced correlation between SHFE and LME markets while the cross-market arbitrage window remained closed.

Macro risks intensified: With the August 1 deadline for US tariff hikes approaching, Trump announced a 15% unified tariff on EU imports, but vague agreement details raised implementation uncertainties. Emergency negotiations with South Korea, India and others yielded no results, exacerbating global trade system restructuring pressures. Concurrently, US June CPI exceeded 2.7% YoY while durable goods orders plunged 9.3%, triggering a flight to the US dollar that drove the US dollar index sharply higher. The euro fell 0.6% against the dollar to 1.1671, pressuring dollar-denominated base metals.

Although LME tin inventory remained at an absolute low of 1,885 mt, the declining ratio of cancelled warrants reduced squeeze risks, with spot premiums narrowing to around $100/mt, weakening marginal price support.

Looking ahead, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to move sideways between 265,000-272,000 yuan/mt, supported by mine-side costs at the lower end while constrained by inventory buildup and macro pressures at the upper end.